A New Way of Looking at Disaster Management
The crises and disasters which we now face reveal profound disruptions, the likes of which have never been witnessed in our history. The term “crisis” comes from the Greek word “κρίνω” / “crîno” which means “to judge.” The words “catastrophe” and “disaster” refer to the damaging effects of a sudden, lasting or intense phenomenon, of natural or human origin. It originates from the ancient Greek word “καταστροφή” / “katastrophḗ” meaning “upheaval, ruin”.
Following on from these old definitions, the United Nations International System for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)1 defines disasters as: “A serious disruption in the functioning of a community or society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts that exceed the capacity of the affected community or society to cope with it using its own resources.”
Let us look at the changes that have taken place since World War II, notably from the 1960s to the 1980s. First, it’s important to consider the collapse of the rural population in Western countries, with a parallel considerable increase in the number of city dwellers forming gigantic megalopolises. This shift in the relationship with the land unavoidably transformed man’s relationship with the world.
We also need to consider the ever-increasing mobility of people, particularly as regards the billions of passenger kilometers, especially in air travel, as well as the vast distances across which the goods in our supermarkets and shops are transported. It follows that the mobility of domestic and wild animals, insects, arthropods, and viruses and bacteria has increased in the same proportions. The most demonstrative examples of this are the global spread of the West Nile virus and the swift worldwide propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic.2
We also need to bear in mind demographics, with life expectancy increasing by three to six months per year, according to demographers. As a result of that rise and the decline in infant mortality, the number of humans on the planet is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a United Nations report.
Among other major changes in our world, we must acknowledge the importance of networks, meaning that the “connective” is taking the place of the “collective.” With just a few clicks, we can access billions of pieces of knowledge from our computers and mobile phones, not to mention the upcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution.
Ultimately, within the space of just a few decades, man’s relationship with the world, with nature, with the environment, with space, and with the global population, as well as our way of life, has completely changed.
This new epoch that has begun, which some scientists call the Anthropocene, obviously requires disaster managers to adopt a new vision. It’s a new geological era characterized by the advent of man as the main force of change on Earth, surpassing geophysical forces. It’s the human age characterized by unprecedented planetary disorder. The United Nations Organization for Education Science and Culture (UNESCO) notes that the term “Anthropocene” was coined to reflect the impact of the accelerated accumulation of greenhouse gases on the climate and biodiversity, as well as the irreversible damage caused by the overconsumption of natural resources.
Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, who at the request of the UN Secretary-General coordinated international relief efforts in Jakarta during the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami of December 2004 that swept across the Indo-Pacific region, defines that for disaster management: "We need three things: a clear system that organizes people at a community level, a very clear and constantly accessible information flow that people learn to trust and respect, and, when you do evacuate people, you have to have a place to take them to, which actually caters to them, where they can stay warm, have something to eat and feel that their property is safe, so that there will be no looting.”3
The question concerning the use of AI in disaster management is part of the new way of looking at crises and disasters that we must adopt. AI can certainly positively contribute within the framework of each phase of disaster management, from mitigation, to preparedness, to response providing situational awareness and decision support. But AI is fundamentally different from any invention in our history. The technologies invented in the past have always empowered us, because no tool was capable of making decisions on its own. For the disaster manager there can be a dangerous bias when blindly using AI without applying human critical thinking. AI applied in disaster management must be reliable, accurate, and, above all, transparent.4 The disaster manager must be able to evaluate the quality of AI-generated information before using it to make important decisions. Decision-making in disaster management should not be delegated or entrusted to a machine, however efficient it may be, but should, in my opinion, remain in the hands of disaster managers.
References:
- https://www.undrr.org/publication/unisdr-strategic- framework-2016-2021
- https://wmo.int/fr/media/magazine-article/reduction-des-risques-de-catastrophe-gestion-des-risques-climatiques-et-developpement-durable
- https://www.preventionweb.net/news/interview-margareta-wahlstrom-special-representative-disaster-risk-reduction
- https://eos.org/opinions/cultivating-trust-in-ai-for-disaster-management
