Colon cancer mortality in the United States declined for decades but has risen sharply since 2013, with projections suggesting continued increases through 2040, according to a long-term epidemiologic analysis using national mortality data. The findings highlight emerging disparities and the need for renewed prevention and screening efforts.

Investigators analyzed mortality data from 1968 to 2023 using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention database, including more than 266,000 deaths. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) declined from 12.8 per 100,000 in 1968 to 1.8 in 2023, with the most rapid improvements occurring between 1968 and 2007. During that period, mortality decreased consistently, reflecting gains in screening and treatment.

However, this trend shifted in recent years. Mortality rates plateaued from 2007 to 2013, followed by a significant increase from 2013 to 2023, with an annual percent change of 9.5%. The authors reported that mortality “initially declined from 1968 to 2007 but started to rise sharply following 2013,” marking a reversal of prior progress.

Forecast modeling predicts further increases, with AAMR projected to reach 3.8 per 100,000 by 2040. The projected burden is higher among men, older adults, and individuals in the Midwest and Southern regions. Notably, mortality rates were similar between White and Black populations in projections, suggesting persistent risk across demographic groups.

The authors concluded that “this trend can potentially worsen by 2040,” emphasizing the need for targeted intervention. 

Reference
Rana MH, Rashid Z, Abbas F, et al. Trends and disparities in colon cancer mortality in the United States (1968–2023): a CDC WONDER-based analysis with projections through 2040. Presented at: Digestive Disease Week; May 2–5, 2026; Chicago, Illinois.